TRUMPCESSION

Are we headed into a Trump recession? Experts say the odds are growing.

• The U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years in the first quarter, following President Donald Trump’s declaration of a trade war on the entire world, penguins included. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.3 percent, instead of the 0.4 percent growth economists expected. Stocks fell after the news. But, never fear, Trump found the guy who did this. And it wasn’t him!

• Surprise! Trump blamed his predecessor, former President Joe Biden. “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” Trump posted on social media. “Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.’ This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers.” Well, ahem, the economy grew by 11 percent under Biden, and the S&P 500 Index soared by over 50 percent during those years. But who’s counting?

• Ironically, Trump has tried to take credit for his predecessor’s boom times, too. In January 2024, when Biden was still in charge, Trump declared that “THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET … INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP.” In fairness, investors really did get excited about Trump 2.0… before he sparked an erratic, self-defeating trade war, and they began discussing whether he might be literally insane.

Economists are growing increasingly worried about a possible recession. 

• The odds of a recession this year have risen to 60 percent, JPMorgan estimated earlier this month. Billionaire hedge fund investor Ray Dalio recently expressed concern that Trump’s trade war could unleash “something worse than a recession.” (I mean, what… would that be, exactly? Godzilla?) The value of the U.S. dollar has dropped nearly 10 percent since Trump took office, the sharpest decline for a new president in a century.

• Trump branded his big tariff announcement “Liberation Day.” But so far that term has mostly given rise to grim wisecracks about the gathering economic gloom. “It’s official: Donald Trump has finally liberated the American economy — from growth,” Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) wrote on X. “Making Recessions Great Again.”

• Still, the unprecedented tariff craziness raises questions about what may come next — and the recent data does leave some room for optimism. Sure, a shrinking economy and a slowdown in hiring are bad. But consumer spending and investment in the U.S. have remained strong, said Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan. “Think of this as a hard-to-interpret report,” he wrote, noting that the “real concern” is how the next quarter goes.

Well, Trump has already thought about that: “You could even say the next quarter is sort of Biden,” he told reporters. And that probably means he’s not expecting the best!

ICE COLD

Donald Trump’s deportation policies are getting darker and darker.

A 2-year-old girl’s mother and father were deported to Venezuela and El Salvador. Three children were deported to Honduras, including a 4-year-old battling cancer. Migrants at a Texas prison formed a human “SOS” when a news outlet’s drone flew past them.

And there are no signs that the Trump administration is letting up.

This morning, Trump admitted that he could bring back Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland father who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador, whenever he wants — but he simply doesn’t want to. The Salvadoran government reportedly turned down a request from Trump’s team to release the man. Sounds like a totally good faith attempt!

Trump seems to be confused about what’s going on, at least when it comes to Abrego Garcia. In an interview with ABC News, he repeatedly claimed that the Maryland man has the figures “MS-13” literally tattooed on his hand. The reporter pointed out that the picture is obviously photoshopped, and Trump lashed back: “You’re not being very nice!”

Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has discouraged some Democratic lawmakers from traveling to El Salvador to advocate for the release of Abrego Garcia, The Bulwark reports. Democrats who want to travel there “should understand that what they’re doing is going to be hurting us in the long run,” a House staffer told the outlet, worrying that Republicans could use the trips to attack vulnerable Democrats.

I dunno, the polls say otherwise!

NEWS NEWS NEWS

The Supreme Court seems likely to let Oklahoma use government money to run the state’s first religious charter school, which would teach Catholic doctrine to its students. Refusing funds for that purpose would amount to “rank discrimination against religion,” Justice Brett Kavanaugh said. Boy, remember when separation of church and state was a thing? Guess we’ll tell our grandkids about those times someday, huh?

First, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared national security secrets with his wife. Now, he’s letting her coordinate his media appearances and meet with job candidates, the Washington Post reports. What’s more, she was in another group chat with political appointees at the Pentagon, overseeing Hegseth’s media appearances. No, Pete, the Department of Defense doesn’t get its own First Lady, last time I checked.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court suspended Hannah Dugan, the county judge arrested by Trump’s Department of Justice last week, from her job after she was accused of helping a migrant from Mexico evade arrest. The court, which tilts liberal, wrote that it made the decision “to uphold the public’s confidence in the courts of this state.” Dugan’s legal team continues to assert her innocence.

UPS plans to lay off 20,000 workers by the end of the year as it reduces business with Amazon and faces wider economic uncertainty due to Trump’s tariffs. The shipping giant also described the cuts as part of an effort to boost efficiency via automation and consolidation. How about living wages for real-life, living people, maybe?

A global study on whether young adults are “flourishing” found that most of them… aren’t doing too hot. People between ages 18-29 are struggling with happiness, physical and mental health, finding meaning in life, relationships, and finances, according to a survey of more than 200,000 people in 20 countries. “It is a pretty stark picture,” said Tyler VanderWeele, lead author of the study. “Are we sufficiently investing in the well-being of youth?

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