
TOM & SCARY
Donald Trump alienated a key ally in Congress, raising new doubts about his “big, beautiful bill,” the GOP’s future — and his own legacy.
- What do mega-rich guy Elon Musk and moderate Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) have in common? They both heralded President Donald Trump’s win last November — and are now loudly arguing that Trump’s biggest domestic legislative priority, the so-called “big, beautiful bill,” is a downright dangerous idea that must be stopped immediately… before Trump can meet his goal of signing the bill into law just as the fireworks begin popping off on July 4.
- Tillis hates the bill so much that he got into a dustup with Trump over the weekend, resulting in the senator’s announcement that he won’t run again in 2026. The bill will undermine healthcare for hundreds of thousands of the least-privileged people in the Tar Heel State, Tills argued, because it slashes funding for Medicaid. He joined Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) as the second GOP senator to oppose the bill, at a time when Trump can only afford to lose three.
- “This bill will betray the promise Donald Trump made,” Tillis said in a speech Sunday night on the Senate floor — hours after Trump threatened to find a primary challenger against him. “What do I tell 663,000 people in two or three years, when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding isn’t there anymore?”
- Meanwhile, Musk, Trump’s former “first buddy,” is firing off incendiary tweets criticizing the bill and pointing out how much most Americans don’t like it. Why is it so unpopular? Not only does the bill slash Medicaid spending, it also allocates $150 billion for immigration enforcement, ends tax credits for buying electric cars, raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and cuts federal assistance to food programs. Many Republicans are probably asking themselves, in the words of David Byrne, how did I get here? Still, they’re voting for it anyway.
- “We are slipping into a strongman state where the president has such an acquiescent Republican caucus that they’re doing this crazy policy, hurting America, hurting the next generation, because Donald Trump wants it,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) told CNN today, after the news of Tillis’s retirement.
Trump may get his bill. But his my-way-or-the-highway approach could spell bad news for Republicans during next year’s elections.
- The GOP currently has a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Tillis’s retirement creates an easier path for Democrats to potentially take back the Senate (although that’s still an uphill battle). Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is increasingly unpopular in her own state, and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) might face a tough re-election, too.
- In the House, Democrats believe they’ll be able to harness backlash to the GOP’s policies to win back the majority. What’s more Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) just announced he’s retiring, and his seat is expected to flip (and sizzle… sorry.)
- “GOP legislative reforms will have no chance if Democrats take the House in 2026. And if they also take the Senate, forget about confirming another Supreme Court nominee,” the Wall Street Journal’s arch-conservative editorial board wrote. “The Trump Presidency will be dead in the water.”
- Will Trump bite his tongue and stop his manic social media rants? Or will he continue pushing unpopular policies and pressuring his own allies to fall in line? I know which I’m betting the house on!
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