In This Episode
This week, Nish and Coco make sense of a bruising local election week, as Labour braces for heavy losses, Reform eyes major gains, and the Greens look to break through in London.
They’re joined by Will Hayward, award-winning investigative journalist and expert on Welsh politics, to break down what’s happening in Wales, where Labour’s century-long dominance could be coming to an end. He explains the new Senedd voting system, the rise of Plaid and Reform, and what this election could mean for the future of devolution.
Plus: Zoë Grünewald joins to unpack Reform’s latest migrant detention centre proposal, Green hopes in the capital, and what a bad night could mean for Keir Starmer.
And: should MPs be allowed to drink on the job, or is Parliament’s bar tab finally becoming a political problem?
GUESTS
Zoë Grünewald, political journalist
Will Hayward, Cardiff-based investigative journalist
USEFUL LINKS
CREDITS
Radio 4, Today Show
Tiktok, Zia Yusef (@ziayusufuk)
Instagram, Hannah Spencer (@hannahtheplumbermcr)
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TRANSCRIPT
Nish Kumar Hi, this is Pod Save the UK, I’m Nish Kumar.
Coco Khan And I’m Coco Khan.
Nish Kumar It’s an action packed show this week, as of course, it’s local elections in the UK.
Coco Khan We’ve got friend of the show, political know-it-all Zoë Grünewald here to discuss Reform’s new insane policy proposal. Yes, another one! And what do the Greens’ chances look like in London?
Nish Kumar And it’s a massive election for the people of Wales. And we’ve got special guest and also friend of the show, Will Hayward, to come and talk us through it.
Coco Khan Plus, we try to answer the most difficult question of the century. Should MPs be allowed to get hammered whilst working in parliament? It’s really a very tricky one. I mean, I don’t know how we will possibly cover it. We couldn’t get to the bottom.
Nish Kumar Luckily, I’m drunk right now. Now, obviously this show is recorded on Wednesday the 6th of May, but it’s been released on Thursday the 7th of may. A massive, massive day politically. Voters are heading to the polls across England to vote for local councilors and in Scotland and Wales to choose new members of the devolved parliaments. We will, of course, get to that. But before we do, it’s absolutely important that we mention this whole thing is happening in the shadow of the awful attack in Golders Green.
Coco Khan So last week, two Jewish men were stabbed in North London in an attack. The police have declared a terrorist incident. The men suffered serious injuries and were treated in hospital and reportedly the perpetrator had attempted to murder a third man in his flat earlier in the day.
Nish Kumar Sadly, this is not an isolated incident. It comes after a spate of arson attacks against Jewish property, including on volunteer ambulances last month. It’s all led to the Chief Rabbi Sir Ephraim Mervis to declare we’re witnessing the normalization of anti-Semitism.
Coco Khan Yeah, it’s been a horrifying incident and yeah, I think the nation is still reeling about it. It’s worth saying that following the attack, the UK national threat level was increased from substantial to severe. This is the second highest level. It means that an attack is highly likely. The UK was last at this level in 2021 following the Liverpool women’s hospital bombing and the murder of MP David Amis.
Nish Kumar Yeah, it’s been a terrifying period for the UK’s Jewish population and it’s really, really deeply profoundly concerning and it is something that we should be talking about. In the wake of these attacks, Starmer has called the situation for British Jews a crisis for all of us and a test of our values, which I think everybody on the show would echo that sentiment. However, he’s also gone a step further in an interview with Radio 4’s Today program.
Speaker 3 But in terms of you as prime minister and your principle, are you saying I want to police the language used on marches more toughly? Yes. Or are you say I want stop some protests altogether like they, for example, did in France? I think certainly the first and I think there are instances for the latter.
Coco Khan So in response, the organizers of the pro-Palestine marches have said that such a ban would strike at the root of free assembly and free speech in the UK.
Nish Kumar I’ve been sort of alarmed by this conversation because I think I’ve always felt that it is intellectually, politically and morally coherent to take a kind of strong stand against prejudice and violation of human rights in all of its forms. So it’s, to me, it’s an ideologically coherent position to both be disgusted by anti-Semitism and also deeply disquieted by the genocide in Gaza. Those are not two opposing forces.
Coco Khan I don’t need to say it to the listeners on the show. I’m sure they all know British Jews are not responsible for anything that is happening. The genocide in Gaza and you can be disgusted about what’s happening here in the UK and also be disgust at what’s happened to the Palestinians. We’ve said it so many times on the shows, how disappointed we are in Keir Starmer. I mean, it’s pointless to even say it now. It’s beyond disappointment. But I’d still go back to the man that used to be the leader of the socialist lawyers organization or whatever it was and all those. Leftist beliefs that we have about international solidarity. I just cannot believe that he is saying that he might stop pro-Palestine marches. I mean, aside from the fact that it doesn’t even make sense. I’m not denying that there are some small minority fringe actors who are doing bad things and are trying to jump onto the Palestinian cause in order to push their hateful agenda, but that’s like a tiny, tiny amount of people. When I have these conflicts on radio or TV or whatever, I always ask the person who was saying, oh, these are hate marches, have you actually been on one? And it’s shocking how many of them, I would say nearly every single person that’s called it a hate march has never been on one.
Nish Kumar It’s really important, I think also as progressive people, that we stand shoulder to shoulder with our Jewish siblings, because we must not allow what’s been happening for the last kind of 20 years really to happen, which is there’s been a kind of splintering of the anti-racist coalition that’s being allowed to happen. And some of it is happening because there are kind of bad faith actors who are trying to dismantle solidarity between grapes full. Essentially political reasons, right? It serves the hard right if minorities are at each other’s throats and pretending that equality is a finite resource and there’s only so much of it to go around and we have to work out how it’s apportioned between different minority groups. The reality is anti-racism is anti racism is anti racism, right, that is the simple reality. Anti-semitism. Is a disgusting poison that we should all be standing against. And our ideological position is clear and it is coherent. We do not want Jewish people held responsible for the actions of the Israeli government. We don’t want Muslims held responsible for the action of the Iranian government or terrorist organizations. We don’t want Christians held responsible. For the rhetoric and actions of Donald Trump’s government that claims to be acting in the name of Christianity. We don’t want Hindus held responsible for the actions of Narendra Modi’s BJP. You are falling into a trap that has been set for you by your oppressor. The second you start talking about how one minority has more rights than the other and well, this wouldn’t happen if it was this group. Minorities should be standing shoulder-to-shoulder with each other and demanding equality, justice and fairness for all of us and for progressive people that means being very vocal about anti-Semitism and it also means articulating the coherence of our position that we do not want our communities held responsible for the actions of people that claim to their faith or their culture. Let’s get into these local elections. So around England, there’s about 5,000 seats up for grabs and 136 local councils and six mayoral elections. And in Scotland and Wales, all the seats in their devolved parliaments are being contested.
Coco Khan Now, to say it’s going to be a bad day for Labour is a massive understatement. One polling expert has forecast them to lose as many as 75% of their council seats, whilst reform could pick up over 1,500. And that’s just England. In Scotland, Labour is also facing a potentially historic defeat behind reform and the SMP. And in Wales, it’s not looking any better.
Nish Kumar We’re going to get to Wales and Scotland later, but first here to discuss all things local elections is friend of the show and political journalist Zoë Grünewald. Zoë, welcome back.
Zoë Grünewald Thank you for having me.
Coco Khan I’d love to say it’s great to see you, but we never see you on great terms, really. I know. We’re always seeing you when the mood music is bad mood. And I think that is.
Nish Kumar Let’s clarify on that. The news is bad. Our personal relationships remain very positive.
Coco Khan Yes. Yes. Anyway, look, I really want to just talk to you about reform, sadly. They seem to be the biggest winners. Well, I mean, we don’t know yet as we’re recording. But on Sunday, Zia Youssef announced a new policy, an absolutely vile policy. I don’t have any other words for it.
Nish Kumar Yeah, so in a post on X, Yusuf promised a reformed government would not put any migrant detention facility in any constituency with a reform MP, nor an area controlled by a reform council. Instead, he suggested green constituencies and councils would be prioritized, claiming it was an important exercise in democratic consent. Now, obviously, there’s a lot one pack here. But I guess the first question is, Zoë… What do you make of this announcement and is it actually legal?
Zoë Grünewald Well, that’s a good question. I think, I mean, obviously, we need to look at the timing of this kind of announcement, right? So this was announced the weekend before the local elections on X, because where else would you announce such an apparent policy? I suspect it’s a little bit of a PR stunt. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take it seriously. And the reason we need take it seriously is because it tells us something very important about how low. The caliber of political ideas, policy, acceptability, have sunk. Threatening to punish places where people don’t vote your way is a real betrayal of democracy. But of course, the details of this policy, the way it treats asylum seekers, these aren’t people who have committed crimes. These are people who are waiting for their application processes to be. Completed. So, I think there are several things that are really alarming about this. I mean, let’s talk about whether it’s workable. Let’s just indulge that idea for a second before we go into the importance of it all. So the scale is the first thing we need to talk about. So reform is talking about many detention centers. They’re talking about holding up to 24,000 migrants, but reform have previously estimated that. 600,000 people they think might need to be detained and deported. So the scale we’re talking about, it’s a different order of magnitude from anything we’ve seen before. If the party and government were to build 24,000 new detention spaces to the standards that Youssef is talking about so people wouldn’t be able to leave, these would be secure facilities that would cost about 12 billion pounds. So this is a lot, this is, a lot of money. Of course, there’s also legal issues. So. Reform have talked about introducing primary legislation called the Mass Deportation Detention Act, which would strip away planning rules. Famously, a very easy thing to do in the UK. I don’t know why no one’s tried it before. It would change procurement rules. And of course, it would mean that there would be plenty of legal challenges on human rights grounds. Now, of course Reform will say, well, we’ll just leave the ECHR. It’s not that simple. None of this is that simple, okay. But then need to look at the language that Yusuf uses and the people this is talking about. Yusof says, migrants will not be able to leave. It’s worth sitting with that. As I said, these aren’t people who’ve been convicted of crimes. These are people who are waiting to have their claims heard. If we’re talking about detention facilities of this scale, where large-scale detention of a civilian population without trial, in-purpose built facilities, no ability to leave, That is the technical definition of a concentration camp. And if you’re also talking about democratic consent, but what you’re using is state infrastructure as a political punishment to voters who didn’t vote for you, that’s coercion. So there are many things that are alarming about this policy and many things that are unworkable. And that’s why I do think it’s political theater, but it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take it seriously.
Coco Khan I mean, I had so many thoughts and feelings when I first heard it. I mean I don’t know if you saw the announcement video. It’s Zia Youssef. I think he’s walking through a beach and he’s wearing sunglasses. And that feeling of, wow, this is all just a game, like a leisure pursuit. And that I remember thinking to myself at the time, like, well, clearly this is going to cost loads of money. And presumably, that’s the point. They want to create almost like a military industrial complex, but a migrant industrial complex. No doubt, it will probably favor some of their mates. There will be contracts that will be given thereafter. But that’s just me speculating. I was thinking to myself about how this conversation, we’re having it and lots of are also having it and having it on good faith. Sure. But can you imagine if Zack Polanski did a version of that? Can you imagine, if Zack Polanski was like, all right, well, if you wrote reform, you obviously don’t believe in net zero. You must love pollution. So we’re going to take all the sewage and put it in your towns. Can you image? The man would be out of the job. But again, you know, we talk a lot about this on this show. They just get away with doing anything, SAYING ANYTHING! Being nasty to their fellow citizens, it’s unbelievable. Anyway, sorry, rant over.
Nish Kumar Listen, it feels like this is a reform policy that’s ripped straight out of the Trump playbook, you know, the targeting of cities that didn’t vote for Donald Trump was something that the Republicans had trailed and then they got into power and it’s absolutely happened. And there’s this idea of generating policy through owning the libs, which is obviously if you’re on the internet, a normal human amount, I would hope you would not understand that phrase. So just in case that is you and you have an emotionally healthy relationship with social media, the phrase owning the libs is a sort of right-wing catch-all term for doing something deliberately to upset progressive people. And it’s sometimes sort of used as a phrase to describe the things that Donald Trump has done. And I think sometimes it’s used as phrase to essentially say, well, this is just trolling and not something that… It will actually happen when they’re in office. But as we’ve seen with the Trump election, a lot of the policies touted were designed to own the lips. Then he got into office. And guess what? He enacted a huge amount of those policies. And the most important outcome is that none of that has actually helped the voters that he was supposedly speaking for in American politics. You know, the policies that are deliberately designed to upset me and uh, being enacted, end up having no material benefit whatsoever for working people in any of these countries, right? Uh, Donald Trump has done a hell of a lot of owning of the lives. It doesn’t seem to have made eggs any cheaper in America. And I think that there is a real fuck around and find out element to all of this, right, if you vote for somebody on a platform that they’re going to own the lives, what actually happens is they end up ruining the lives of ordinary people in your country. And the second thing it really makes me think is I watched that advert with Zia Youssef on the beach in his aviators. When did we stop letting men have midlife crises by buying sports cars? Because the Zia Yussef advert reeks of somebody who is about to bang their secretary and buy a Porsche.
Clip A reform government will not put any migrant detention centers in any constituency with a reform MP. We will not let them where reform controls the council.
Coco Khan I saw it and was like, Zia Youssef, I get it. You love Top Gun. We understand. You saw the Top Guns and now you’re styling yourself like Top Gun, okay.
Nish Kumar It’s a cartoon of a man whose erections no longer carry the force and reliability that they once did. Just get Viagra’s here. Get Viagras and a sports car and leave politics, because you’re embarrassing yourself.
Coco Khan So let’s talk about the Greens, feels like everyone is always talking about the Greens at the moment. They’re mostly targeting urban areas, pinning high hopes on London. In the last set of council elections, they won just 1% of seats in the capital, but now according to YouGov, they’re polling at 24% just behind Labour. Zoë, what do you think of the Greens chances?
Zoë Grünewald Labour is likely to lead the highest vote share in the majority of boroughs, but will lose ground on all different sides. And the Greens are likely to be the second-place party in a lot of these Labour-held boroughs. So Labour is gonna see a real nibbling away of its support to the Greens, especially in places like Hackney, where it could look like, some models are putting that the Greens will get the highest vote share for the first time. And the areas that are looking particularly close are places like Islington, Lambeth, where I’m recording now, and Lewisham, where some polls are putting Greens within kind of two points of Labour. In terms of mayoralties, Hackney is another really interesting one to watch. So Zoë Garbet, who is the Green candidate there, she many people think she could take that. And there’s a lot of excitement around that being a green male tea and what that will mean for the area. It’s worth saying she’s based a lot of her campaign there on housing and affordable housing. So if there is success there, will we look at that translating over to Green Party policy in a much bigger way? The Greens have obviously made their economic offering much larger recently, they’ve tried to kind of take out of the Zohran Mamdani playbook in New York and put cost of living and affordability at the center of their offering. If that translates across and they can see that that is really damaging progressive Labour support, I wonder if we could see a much wider reach across when it comes to the general election. Now that is interesting because we know that one of the internal tensions in the Green Party is this slight tension over building and development and the new, younger progressive voters who obviously want more affordable housing. So we’re interested to see how that plays out.
Nish Kumar In the last week, there’s been a string of stories around anti-Semitism in the Green Party. Two Green candidates for Lambeth Council were arrested for allegedly stirring up racial hatred online. One shared a post that is deeply unpleasant. I almost don’t even want really out loud. It’s deeply unpleasant. In the interest of giving the right to reply, the Green Party leader, Zack Polanski said, it’s important to say that I condemn whenever there has been any anti-Semitism, I do that both as a political leader, but also as someone who is Jewish. So I’m really interested in your sense of the Green Party and the fact that it’s grown so quickly and whether that means that we’re not seeing some of the same stringent vetting. Of candidates that you might see with the parties with larger infrastructures in place.
Zoë Grünewald Yeah, and it’s interesting, actually, not that long ago, I was talking to some Green Party insiders when I was writing a report on how the Greens were growing in popularity. And they were definitely super excited about how their membership was surging, but they were also all worried about the old processes they rely on to process that membership. And it’s stuff like their IT systems, it’s stuff like they’re sort of local constituency parties and how many people there are there. And of course, also vetting processes were a huge part of that. And that isn’t- distinct to the Greens, any party that has had rapid growth like that, that’s something they always worry about. I mean, we’ve certainly seen it with reform. You know, there have been a ton of candidates who, you know, unsavory comments they’ve made before they joined reform and after they joined reform have come to light. So vetting is always going to be difficult, I think, especially in an age of social media where people have these much longer digital footprints. And I think probably for the Greens as well, having You know, a membership that leans younger as well. You know people are much more kind of online. You’ve got that sort of digital fluency. That means that there are things that need a lot more scrutiny. I think what’s particularly interesting about this is that over the last week it’s been really difficult for Polanski. There’s obviously been, as you said Nish, quite serious allegations of antisemitism within the party. Zack Polanski has faced his own media storm over the weekend after reposting a video on X that showed the police arresting the attacker in Golders Green. And there has been some approval polling since, and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen 14 points in this week. Wow. From minus 13 to minus 27. That’s a more in common polling. And obviously that is significant one-week move for any party leader. It now puts him below Bade, Nock, Davey and Farage. He still leads Starmer comfortably. He sits at minus 45. What I would say is all party leaders have seen a drop in their approval ratings over the past week, presumably because it’s local elections and everybody’s looking at them and going, oh God, I don’t like any of them. That’s quite common around election time, but I do think there is something significant here and more in common is Luke Trill, who his company conducted this analysis, basically said that it’s not just that his negative. Rating went up it’s that some younger voters who were positive about him have now moved to neutral you know they’re now more cautious about him and that I think is the more worrying shift for the Greens because those are exactly the kind of voters that the Greens are banking on.
Nish Kumar I also think it’s worth raising that some of the cartoons of Zack Polanski in the midst of a kind of crisis about anti-Semitism in the Green Party have betrayed, I mean, I think if we’re being generous, we could say they’ve betrayed a stunning lack of awareness of the history of anti-semitic cartoons specifically coming out of Nazi Germany. That’s the most generous interpretation is that these people are morons. But the kind of openness of some of these anti-Semitic characters in a newspaper like The Times, I think are absolutely horrendous. I think we always say this, anti-racism is anti- racism. If we’re worried about anti-semitism, the Green Party, which we should always be, we should be worried about it everywhere. There are sections of the British press that should have some pretty awkward questions asked of them that I don’t feel are being asked with sufficient force. This show has always been very clear that we are. Devastated by any acts of racism, regardless of their political origin, and I would like to see a little bit more of that scrutiny applied maybe a little more evenly.
Coco Khan Look, let’s move on to Labour. So look, the Greens are, they’re going to do well in London, most likely. Reform are going to be well in the rest of England, most likely, so it’s Labour who’s going to lose out the most. There’s been murmurs of a political coup against Starmer, the latest murmur of a politically coup against starmer. Zoë, given the poor showing for Labour, what do you think it means for the future of the PM?
Zoë Grünewald Yeah. So, I mean, I feel like we’ve basically been having this exact conversation every time I come on the podcast. Who do you think it’s going to be? When do you think it is going to happen? And the answer is still, it’s probably going to be Burnham, Raynor, or Streeting. And it’s probably going be after local elections because that’s literally where we still are. There are contenders, but there’s various obstacles in all their way. I think there is just an agreement that Starmer is not going to Prime Minister at the next election. His net approval rating is minus 45. That’s by far the worst any party leader has tracked. Polling of a margin of two to one, they say it’d be better for the country if he was replaced by another Labour politician. This polling by More in Common actually also showed that the only leader who clearly beats him head to head is Andy Burnham, which I think is really interesting. Andy Burnam, I think, is very much seen is the kind of. Contender that could unite people. I mean, West Streeting is pretty divisive in the party. He’s also tainted with the Mandelson stuff to some extent because he is a friend of Mandelson, Angela Rayner. You know, there are people who really like her, but they’re worried about her electability. I think they’re also worried a little bit about the cloud under which she left government, of course, under investigation for her tax affairs by HMRC. So there’s There’s various obstacles standing all the way. What is interesting is that the Telegraph reported earlier in the week that, so you will remember last time, Andy Burnham tried to come back to Parliament, the National Executive Committee blocked him. So apparently, according to the Telegraph, the mood has now changed, they no longer would stand in Burnham’s way. There’s also reports that people in the party are finding a way for Burnham to come about, finding him a seat. The most significant hurdle will be trying to get Keir Starmer to step down and doing that in a way that feels choreographed and orchestrated and dignified, because ultimately, if it is a bloodbath for Labour, which it likely will be, although we have to remember there’s always a certain amount of expectation management going on because they always want it to look slightly better than it did. The last thing they want is a very messy leadership coup where they essentially have to drag Keir Starmer kicking and screaming from number 10. So there is a sense that it needs to be done in a way that’s, you know, that’s managed, that looks appetizing to the public, that doesn’t look self-indulgent, but equally, get on with it because they’ve only got two years until a general election and reform is snapping at their heels. I think what would be really pivotal and the really interesting thing to watch about local elections, and there’s loads of things to watch obviously, but the thing that I will be looking at is, is it the Greens that are taking Labour’s support? Is it reform? Because I think that will dictate which way the party moves if we’re seeing a lot of progressive support eroded in those inner city areas. And in other areas as well, you know, remember Gorton and Denton, that was not a Green target seat at all, but they won it. So there is this real suggestion that the Greens are not just taking those kind of university student areas that was typically the case, they’re now taking a much broader part of disillusioned Labour voters. Then if we see the Greens doing that, then I think the party will really want to move left and they will want a big kind of more progressive soft left offering from someone like Andy Burnham, maybe Raina on a joint ticket. If they lose a lot to reform, could the party think about someone else? Might they think about moving more towards West Streeting, Shebana Mahmood, et cetera. So that will be an interesting battle to watch for.
Nish Kumar It can’t be West Street and surely the Mandelson thing, surely you don’t solve the problem of the guy who gave Mandelson a job by replacing him with Mandelson’s best buddy in cabinet, by his own kind of mass release of WhatsApps has shown the kind of closeness of his relationship. I feel like I’m going crazy here, but surely that’s a disqualifying factor for him.
Zoë Grünewald For me, Wes Streeting kind of typifies a lot of things that have gone wrong for Keir Starmer, you know, the relationship with Mandelson, the closeness with Labour Together, the kind of Morgan McSweeney Boys Club faction, you know, Wes streeting is seen as, I wouldn’t say he’s, well, I would say he’s seen as close to that, you know, and it would feel like a continuity of Keir Starmer. And I think the last thing the party would want to do is put in someone who looks like a continuity candidate. But the thing I think they will be worried about is electability. They’ll be thinking, who can go against reform? And if they still have that idea that to go against reform, you have to become reform, then that’s going to make it very difficult. But I think the more we see that that is being disproven, and hopefully the local elections will be a huge, you know, an inarguable disproving of that, I think, the party is likely to look to someone like Andy Burnham.
Nish Kumar Zoë Grünewald, thank you very much for joining us on Pod Save the UK. Coming up after the break, we talk to journalist and friend of the show, Will Hayward, about what’s been going on in Wales and what it means for the Labour Party and will it be good or bad? Spoiler alert, bad.
Coco Khan [AD]
Nish Kumar Few political parties anywhere have been as consistently successful as Welsh Labour. They’ve come first in Wales in every general election since 1922 and every devolved election since 1999. But that success might all be about to end. After 27 years in power, Labour could lose its grip on Wales, which would be a political disaster for Keir Starmer and a seismic change for the people of Wales.
Coco Khan If the latest polling is right, after the 7th May, the biggest party in the Senate could be either plied or reformed and they’re offering completely different visions for the future of Wales. One of the biggest dividing lines between them is independence.
Nish Kumar It’s an extraordinary election for many reasons, but on top of everything, the whole voting system has changed. So instead of first past the post, everything’s now being decided using a proportional system.
Coco Khan So there’s a lot going on, big political shifts and new voting system and a real crossroads in where Welsh politics is heading. So to help us make sense of it all, we’re joined by a friend of the show, Will Hayward, a multi award-winning investigative journalist based in Cardiff, an expert on Welsh politics and a regular columnist for The Guardian. Welcome to Pod Save the UK, Will.
Will Hayward Diolch yn fawr, thank you so much for having me.
Coco Khan You’ve come on the show a few times and you’ve often talked about there’s going to be a real reckoning, it’s coming, wait for the local elections and now the local election are here. Are you buzzing?
Will Hayward And if the buzz can get through the exhaustion, yes, potentially I am buzzing. I think so. Wales is national parliament, our Senate, we vote every five years. And since the dawn of devolution, it’s always been Labour. And the fact that I might be writing a different word other than Labour First Minister in a bit of a nerdy way is quite exciting.
Coco Khan So look, before we get into the weeds of this very seismic Welsh election, and figure out, you know, who’s likely to come on top, can you just explain about this devolved parliament and the change in the voting?
Will Hayward Yeah, so Wales got devolution at the same time as Scotland, but we have less powers than Scotland. So we control, in the Welsh parliament, we have health, we have education, we have some transport, we are environment, we are farming. So a lot of really big key policy areas. The key difference between us and Scotland is we actually have far fewer levers to actually deal with these problems. So Scotland have much more ability to borrow money, they have ability to carry over money. Have much more control over things like income tax rates. And Wales really limped into devolution. It was incredibly close, Wales, the vote for devolution, but now Wales has settled into it more. And this is really, I would say, the first election where I think that the turnout might exceed 50%, which is pretty mad when you think about it, but less than 50% of people want to vote in their parliamentary elections. But I think this is the time that it probably will go above that. And a big part of that is because. We could see a change of government for the first time in a quarter of a century.
Nish Kumar This is a sort of political earthquake in the offing. How do you think the new voting system is going to affect people’s patterns and the results? Are we not just seeing the effects of fatigue with Labour rule and also frustration with Keir Starmer, but is there also an impact that’s going to be had by the actual voting system itself.
Will Hayward Yeah, so I’m not going to go into the minutiae of the de Hont system because some of your listeners may be like operating machinery or driving and it’s probably not that safe to do that. But Wales had a parliament of 60 members and they’ve increased that to 96 members, which is far more reflective of like a national parliament. But the electoral system they have brought in around this, which actually was kind of imposed on Labour by Wales, by UK Labour. It was UK Labour who wanted this system. The more time you spend with this system, the more you realize it is absolutely, it’s awful. It is a proportional system, but it is the least proportional system you could possibly have. So in very simple terms, Wales has been split into 16 super constituencies and the super constituency name is the only exciting thing about this. So each of these super constituenties will have six members and they will be elected based on a list system. If each party is putting forward six candidates in each area in a list, one, two, three, four, five, six, and if you get 50% of the vote, pretty much your top three candidates will get elected. Now, there’s loads of issues with this, not least because it massively favors big parties, and Labour did this because they were like, well, we’ll never be a small party in Wales, and now they’re polling at about 13, 14%. What this does, it cuts the gap, the link between the voter and their representative, because you are not voting for the individual person, you put an X next to the party and all the power resides with the parties because if you are a prospective politician, what you need to do is you need to please your party in order to be put at the top of the list, rather than please your electorate to get them to go out and vote for you. And in terms of what this will mean in terms of how people vote, it’s tricky because Wales has a left of center political identity. Most people in Wales are kind of center or left. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a strong kind of small c conservative like line running through wales but there’s more people on the left in wales there’s also more parties um reform are really the only game in town in terms of on the on the right now in wale’s they’ve completely cannibalized the conservative vote there’s More people on the left but they’re spread over more parties and this means that people on the lefts in wals have kind of got a choice do they vote for the party which they want or do they try and coalesce around the largest party and that looks likely to be I’d come research. There’s been two recent polls for Wales. The most recent one came out on Tuesday and that was a YouGov poll and that said that Plaid Cymru are about four percentage points ahead and in terms of seats that would give them a decent edge over reform. They wouldn’t be able to form a majority with the Greens or with the Lib Dems but with Labour they would. It would put reform even with the Tories quite short of a majority but one at the weekend from more in common, that one put Plaid and reform on neck and neck. In terms of the amount of seats that they would get. And it shows that just one or two percentage points in either direction can actually have huge lurches in the overall seat share under this system. So unless something wild happens on the 7th of May, in all likelihood, we will have a reform led government in Wales or a Plaid Cymru led government in Wales.
Coco Khan I mean, I’m asking this question and I know that the answer is going to be so long. We couldn’t cover it all, but what are some key issues or cases or events in recent times that have really made the Welsh people want to part ways with Labour?
Will Hayward I think there’s a few things. I mean, it’s hard to overstate how incredible Welsh Labour have done historically. And a big part of why they did that is because they were much better than Scottish Labour were at kind of honing on the Welsh part of Welsh Labour. And that really left Plaid Cymru with nowhere to go except for Welsh independence. But then, ahead of the general election, we had the disastrous tenure of Vaughan Gethin, who was only in for about four or five months. That’s a whole controversy we don’t need to go into. But during that time, Welsh Labour shifted, and they shifted to be much closer to UK Labour. And during that election, there was a lot of talk, and the senior people in Welsh Labour were saying, oh, if you elect another Labour government, and we’ll have a Labour government at either side of the M4, so they position themselves as walking in lockstep with one of the most unpopular governments ever. Wales has real issues with public services. We’ve got the longest waiting list. We have the worst educational outcomes. We have a worst quality housing. There is a lot of very legitimate reasons if you live in Wales to be very angry with the current situation. But for 15 years, the Welsh Labour were able to point down to London and say, it’s not us. It’s those rascals down in London who are not giving us the money that we need. But the problem is those rascal’s in London are now them. And that is a thing that they haven’t been able to circumvent. This is the challenge is essentially, They are defending both their record in Cardiff Bay and their record in Westminster. And their message at the moment is stay the course. Now, if you’re not happy with your course, that is a terrible, terrible message. And that is kind of where they’ve tried to position themselves.
Nish Kumar Yeah, I mean, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, more than one in five people in Wales live in poverty, and the proportion of those considered to be in very deep poverty rose from 33% in the 1990s to 47% in 2023. So stay the course is a really, really difficult sell to the Welsh people right now. But what, so I mean we should talk about reform. What is the, what is the sort of specific appeal? That Nigel Farage is offering to the Welsh people. Well, we’ve talked about with you on this show before the fact that Farage has seen Wales as a kind of viable opportunity for him to break through. What is it particularly about this particular moment in Welsh politics that has created the space for reform.
Will Hayward Yeah. I mean, you make a really good point around the poverty there. So it’s not just the kind of overall poverty rates, child poverty rates in Wales. It’s one in three. So we’ll and what’s crazy about that is the the younger you get, the more likely you are to be in poverty. So the age group in the whole of Wales, which is most likely to be in poverty, is not to four year olds. The age group least likely to in poverty is pensioners, which kind of sums up why it’s probably worth going out and voting. But in terms of Nigel Farage’s appeal in Wales, so. I said, there are completely legitimate grievances for people in Wales. There are areas of really significant deprivation, like areas of the South Wales Valleys are some of the poorest areas in Europe. When we were in the EU, that was identified Europe-wide as a real key area of deprivation. From Reform’s point of view, I genuinely don’t think they would want to be leading the next Welsh government, because you have to see everything that they do from the prism of, does this make it more likely that Nigel Farage will be in Downing Street? And I don’t a reform Welsh government actually makes that more likely. I think what reforms ideal world is, is to be the largest party in Wales, but not be able to form a government because that enables them to position themselves as, well, look, the left-wing establishment closed ranks against us to stop us governing. And then they will get an absolutely huge amount of resources. So. If they were to get 33 Senedd members, each one of them fully salaried, has three or four members of staff each, so you’re talking well over 100 staff, and the sheer amount of money, they’ll be getting hundreds of thousands of pounds for being able to form a group within the Senedd. And that group will, well, it’s supposed to be opposing the, and scrutinizing the Welsh government, but that’s a lot of spare resource to be able to be directed wherever they feel that is merited. We know from when UKIP were in the Welsh Parliament, so UKIP had seven members elected in 2016 till 2021. And by the end of that period, only one of them was still in UKIP, it was Neil Hamilton on his own with his wife employed at the taxpayers expense. Oh my God. You can see why it is such a delicious proposition for them, and this is why the electoral system that Welsh Labour brought in is such an act of self-harm on their part, because they were warned that doing a de Hont system of a closed party list with no second preferences really really helps a populist party on the right. They were told this. And if I was Nigel Farage and I messaged him on Cameo and said Nigel do you want design me. Electoral system for Wales. He would absolutely do a cameo designing this electoral system for Wales and can I just make one point about their manifesto for Wales? So it had two, I had three words in Welsh on the front of it on their Welsh manifesto and they misspelled two of them. So two of the three Welsh words on the Front will misspell.
Nish Kumar Do you think that that illustrates maybe a lack of commitment to Wales as a country, Will, if they can’t spell words in the language correctly?
Will Hayward I mean, the funniest part of it is they have quite a few Welsh speakers who are like standing as candidates. I think probably it’s an illustration not of their lack of dedication to Wales, but the fact that chat GPT can’t speak Welsh very well.
Coco Khan But that is an indicator of reform though, right? So I’ve got a little statistic here, only of reform voters, only 4% speak fluent Welsh.
Will Hayward When it comes to people who speak a bit of Welsh, there’s a lot of people who kind of have a bit of Welsh who will vote reform. I don’t want to portray it just as a kind of a Welsh language thing. I think it does come down to identity though. So in Wales, basically, Scotland, people in Scotland have never really had that problem of saying, yeah, we’re Scottish, we’re scottish. In Wales, it’s often historically been quite different. People have often referred to themselves as British or Welsh and British, British and Welsh. And actually it’s quite interesting because you identify as British in Wales, you have much more in common in terms of your worldview with people who say they’re English in England. And it’s only really younger generations who are overwhelmingly confident in saying, no, I’m just Welsh. We know from the data from the Wales Governance Center at Cardiff University, that if you say you are Welsh, you are very, very, very unlikely to vote for the Conservatives or for reform. So you’ve got to remember… 50% of people in Wales live within 25 miles of England. It is a different geography to Scotland, where is that huge gap between a huge depopulated border. Wales is much more integrated. The Northeast of Wales, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Wrexham, are the most commuted out of areas of the UK. More people commute out of those areas to work, and a lot of them are going to Merseyside. It is that kind of group that reform are hoping to make gains on. And the thing they’ll probably make the biggest gains is in the areas of huge poverty in the South Wales at least.
Nish Kumar Let’s talk about Plaid. So if Reform are the largest party, but not large enough to form a government themselves, this sort of Nigel Farage’s dream bit of electoral mathematics that you’re talking about, Will, and Plaid have to be the biggest party in a coalition that forms a new government. Talk us through the platform that Plaid are offering and also, I guess, talk to us a little bit about what this may mean for Welsh independence. Cause from what I understand Independence has sort of been pretty far down the manifesto pledge applied, which again kind of makes sense if you’re talking to a country that’s experiencing deep deprivation. It makes sense to talk about resolving those problems first.
Will Hayward Yeah it’s really interesting like the only party that doesn’t want to talk about Welsh independence at the moment is Plaid Cymru. Every other party is like Welsh independence look at look at what they want to do and Plaid don’t want do that. Now the polling we’ve had some polling that puts reform slightly ahead. We had some poll yesterday from YouGov which was an MRP poll which put Plaid slightly ahead, I wouldn’t be surprised if Eva was the biggest party but if for Plaid the most important thing is forming that next Welsh government and is reenact your whiff as the First Minister because they believe… That they have a chance of doing what the SNP did in 2008. When you have a nationalist government in one of the component parts of the UK, they are able to position themselves as really diametrically opposed to what’s happening in Westminster. And that is a really powerful message. And it was something that the SNPs have harnessed incredibly well over the last kind of 15, 20 years. One of Pelé’s big things is they really want changes to how the UK is constituted. Not just in terms of independence, they’ve said that isn’t kind of something that they’re looking to pursue. But Scotland, at the end of every year, can carry over quite a bit of their money in their budget. Wales can’t. And every year we can carry across proportionally less simply because Westminster’s frozen that, whereas they haven’t for Scotland. And these are… These are quite dry and boring things, but actually they are the fundamental reasons why it is quite hard to fix Wales’s problems. I genuinely think you could put the best politicians in the world in Cardiff Bay, by the way, we haven’t, but you could the best politician in the world at Cardiff bay. And they still wouldn’t be able to fix Wales’s problem because they’ve been asked to build palaces with a kid’s bucket and spade. So one of Plaid’s key aims is to try and get those kind of concessions from the UK government. And I actually, I mean, people say, well, if a Leonard Morgan from Welsh Labour can’t get Keir Starmer to make concessions, why would he do it for Plaid Cymru? And I think there is a reason why the SNP always get a better deal for Scotland than Welsh Labour ever get for Wales. And the key part of that is because they agitate, they make a fuss, and it is electorally expedient not to annoy the Scots. It doesn’t really matter if you annoy the Welsh because our own government won’t make waves in any meaningful way. And Ply believe that by causing that fuss, they have an opportunity to. A UK Labour government, which by then might be desperate to try and win back Wales, they might feel like they need to make some kind of concession. And that’s kind of the big offer that Plaid Cymru are trying to make.
Coco Khan So Will, you mentioned Scotland there in the last Scottish parliament elections, reform gained no seats. But now according to a more in common poll, they’re set for a clear second place, Labour in a distant third, their forecast for a historic defeat. I guess, you know, before we started recording, you quipped that what is happening in Wales is the ghost of Christmas future for the rest of the UK. And I suppose what I wanted to ask is what did you mean by that? And is Scotland a place that that’s going to play out?
Will Hayward At the moment in Wales, we have an unpopular, incumbent Labour government who has failed to follow through on the promises of change that it got a really big majority with. And I think that is pretty familiar to the rest of the UK. The key difference between Scotland and Wales and a general election is that however flawed some of the electoral system is, they are at least broadly proportional. You’re not going to win an outright majority with 30% of the vote in Wales. That is absolutely a possibility in the general election. So Wales, I think, is absolutely shows, will be showing to the rest of the UK and I think Scotland will, what discontentment. If you and you need to count that needs to be counted. And ultimately, the way you count that is by making people’s lives not just better, but demonstrably better. You can’t just point to a chart to them and say, well, I think you’ll find that actually employment is down to 0.2 percent, as though that means that they can. Yeah. So it’s it’s a real frustration. And I think, yeah, Wales and Scotland are the kind of well, feeling for Wales. Wales is the canary in the mine for the rest of the UK. And if that can if that Canary suddenly puts on a very turquoise blazer, I think the rest of the UK needs to take notice.
Coco Khan There’s so much to take in with that last image, but the part of me was like, don’t let reform know about that image because it will start appearing. Thank you so much, Will. It’s always great to have you on the show. Yeah, well it’s always a pleasure to have him on the Show. Listeners, if you want to catch the latest from Will’s excellent reporting from Wales, you can subscribe to his substack, the Will Hayward newsletter.
Nish Kumar Coming up, we answer the big question, should MPs be allowed to drink in Parliament? Stay tuned.
[AD]
Coco Khan Parliament, the home of British democracy, where our laws are debated, scrutinized and passed. Apparently it stinks of alcohol.
Nish Kumar This week, newly elected Green MP Hannah Spencer caused a stir after speaking out about the drinking culture she’s encountered on arriving in Westminster. This was on her Instagram this week.
Clip If you turned up to work, reeking of booze, you would get sacked. That is how the vast majority of us have to live our lives. Why is it different for MPs? I don’t think it’s much to ask that MPs are sober whilst they make the biggest decisions that affect all the rest of us. And any of them telling you that they have a right to get pissed at work, they’re taking the piss, babe.
Nish Kumar So look, we should say there’s been a lot of sort of gnashing of teeth by politicians and people who work in Westminster about Hannah’s comments, but we should mention that Parliament’s own watchdog, the Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme, has also said that drinking culture is a, and this is a quote from the report, frequent factor fueling inappropriate behavior and alcohol consumption was leading to intimidating behavior like shouting and swear it.
Coco Khan The Guardian reported that the Woolsac Bar, formerly the sports and social bar, rebranded after becoming notorious for brawls and misconduct scandals. The Strangers Bar was also temporarily closed last year after an alleged spiking incident and has since reopened with tightened security. I mean, as a story, it seems to have captured the imagination. I’ve heard it spoken about lot and you know the politicians… Clearly with a lot of pressing issues to deal with seem to have found time to comment on this. So Nigel Farage, who hosted a political interview show called Talking Pints, said, The Greens are happy to legalize heroin and crack, but now they think an afternoon pint is a step too far.
Nish Kumar Emily Thornberry said she remembers being surprised by the culture when she first arrived, but it’s much better than it used to be.
Coco Khan Thornberry also discussed how MPs start to develop a habit of drinking to help deal with their loneliness. That’s because they were away from home for long periods of time. I’m not sure that would be considered a very healthy approach to dealing with that, but there we go.
Nish Kumar I mean, what I would say is, I guess in having an unhealthy relationship with alcohol, our MPs are accurately reflecting the mood of our nation. So I mean we always say we want politics to be more representative of the general public and problem drinking at work really is unfortunately a pretty accurate reflection of a lot of this country.
Coco Khan You can’t get therapy on the NHS, so why not self-medicate? They really are in tune with the national mood.
Nish Kumar I mean, listen, there is a serious conversation to be had here about inappropriate behavior. Also, it is a bit of a concern that our lawmakers might be turning up to work drunk. With respect to what Hannah Spence was saying, if I turn up Stinking of Booze to my job as stand-up comedian, it’s not an ideal experience, I’m sure, for the audience that have paid to see me, but it does not affect our national security. It certainly shouldn’t affect our national security. If something I said on stage affects our national security, a bunch of stuff has gone very badly wrong.
Coco Khan We should also mention that the drinking is not the end of it really. In 2019 when campaigning to become Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Hoyle said it’s not just drink we’ve got to catch out, there’s a drug problem.
Nish Kumar Yeah, there was a huge story in 2021 in the Sunday Times that reported drug detection wipes found traces of cocaine in 11 out of 12 bathrooms tested on the parliamentary estate. And so those are actually bathrooms that are only accessible to people with parliamentary passes. Look, it is a serious problem and it is something that’s worth discussing. You know, if people are drinking excessively and taking drugs, I think the I understand that some MPs got very upset about all of this, but the sort of salient point that Hannah Spencer is making is that if any of us turns up to work stinking of booze or if any us, for example, are caught taking cocaine, there are serious repercussions either professionally or criminally. So it is a conversation that’s worth having and we probably should dig into. Um, what I would say is. I have never taken cocaine, so I’m getting a lot of this on second-hand information. But what I understand is that if you are very drunk, the physiological impact of cocaine can overcome some of the symptoms of alcohol consumption. So what I’m saying is we either need to get rid of both, or if people are going to be drunk, we need to be providing cocaine for members of parliament. We need to make a straightener available for politicians. If they are going to make laws while strong. We should be providing them with cocaine to act against some of the effects of the alcohol. We’ve either got to go one way or the other. So it’s either we’ve got to deal with the drinking culture and the drug culture in Westminster, or we’ve go to massively increase the availability of cocaine to MPs.
Coco Khan Another policy brought to you by.
Nish Kumar And that’s the platform I’m running on in today’s local elections. That’s the policy that I’m runnig on. More cocaine for MPs and alcohol. You don’t want them just coked up because that, I mean, then, you know, things will be even worse.
Coco Khan I don’t even know where to go from this man, I don’t know where to go with it. I had some clever points about politicians and drinking and the normalization and now I’m done, I’m on the floor. Anyway, to just recap on that story, Britain’s Parliament, where the laws of this country are written, has an alleged alcohol problem, an alleged cocaine problem, and yet they are still locking up people for smoking weed. So anyway, cool story, let’s move on.
Nish Kumar So today, Britain is heading to the polls in the local elections, there’s a strong possibility you are listening to this podcast on your way to the polling station. I think a lot of shows would spend their time saying things like, remember to get out and vote. I feel like we know our listeners well enough to know that you, let’s face it, bunch of lovable geeks are either on your to vote or have made arrangements for a postal or proxy vote. Oui, oui, oui. We know our listeners, we know we don’t need to encourage you to vote. But in any case, the voting is happening. And we’ve been a lot of journalists been trying to ask the question of what defines a British voter in 2026.
Coco Khan Right. And to that end, The Economist has built a model on the UK electorate based on a survey of voting intentions carried out by more in common. So the model estimates the probability of voting behavior based on the eight characteristics that most influence voter choices. So that’s sex, age, ethnicity, region, education, employment status, types of housing, and whether that is a rural or urban area.
Nish Kumar So the group described as Asian men aged 55 to 64 from the Northwest who own a home in a city, work and have an undergraduate degree had the strongest likelihood of voting conservative. This is the last stronghold of conservative support is South Asian uncles.
Coco Khan Yeah, yeah, which we were very surprised about and we feel is our job to tell you to call your uncle. Do that.
Nish Kumar That’s right. Do that, piece of work. Coco Card would now like to engage in a public service announcement. Coco, please, please take it away.
Coco Khan I have to say I was really not expecting because it’s if you see the they visualized it on their instagram So do check it out and you can kind of click through and see What demographic is most interested in in in each party? No one will be surprised to hear that white men over 75 are most likely to be reform voters, for example. But yeah, seeing the South Asian uncle getting there at 55 to 64, he’s done well. He’s a small business owner. Like he’s still holding it out for the conservatives despite everything that went on. Well, I, you know, I feel like this, there’s only one thing for it. And that is get on the phone, get on WhatsApp and ask uncle, what’s up, man? What’s going on?
Nish Kumar Definitely get on the WhatsApp because that’s where the uncle is receiving memes about Sadiq Khan and how Narendra Modi is basically Superman. And listen, I do have an uncle who is just slightly above that age bracket and I do think he votes conservative. I would love to call him, but he doesn’t speak to me. So, well, it’s a slight hiccup at the call your uncle’s case.
Coco Khan If you feel that you can, do send a message to your uncle for the good of the nation, please.
Nish Kumar But what should the message say? You can’t just say, send a message to your uncle. People might think, oh, keep going, brother. Participate in democracy. You’ve got to fill them in on what the message is.
Coco Khan Okay, I don’t know. We’ll workshop it, Nish.
Nish Kumar Listen, the message is you ain’t going to be spared from the deportation flights. Grow up, grow up and smell the Garam masala, brother. If they start deporting people, they’re not going to let you get away with it. It’s the fundamental naivety of the Asian conservative And it’s sort of a failure to pay proper attention to. Kind of career trajectory of a lot of the most high profile South Asian politicians of the last kind of decade, which is you’re useful to them until you’re not. And when you stop being useful to them, they will turn on you. And it’s crazy that you can’t see in the way that it plays out with these politicians, how that’s going to translate itself into policy from conservative political parties. If Zia Youssef thinks he ain’t gonna end up in one of his fucking detention centers, he’s… I’ve got magic beans to sell the motherfucker.
Coco Khan I can’t believe you had to make it serious. I was really just waiting to use Asim Chaudhary’s joke about an entrepreneur and then say something about, I know the conservatives appeal to your entrepreneur tendencies, but no, you have to make a serious, Nish. Anyway, yeah, very well said. Smell the garam masala. Wake up and smell the garama masala.
Nish Kumar That’s it, everybody. On that note, on that terrifying note, thank you very much for listening, as always, to Pod Save the UK.
Coco Khan Pod Save the UK is an Intelligent Squared production for Crooked Media.
Nish Kumar Thanks to producer Katie Grant, digital producer Jacob Liebenberg and assistant producer Verity de Kalle.
Coco Khan The executive producers are Bea Duncan and Katie Long.
Nish Kumar Follow at Pod Save the UK on Instagram, TikTok, X, and Blue Sky, and remember to hit subscribe for new shows on Thursdays. You also may have noticed some new names in those credits, and we welcome the new team to the show. We’re very excited to be working with you. We’d also like to take a quick opportunity to thank Reduced Listening and the people that we previously worked with. So a big shout out to May Robson, Narda Smilinic, and Kate Fitzsimons.
