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Is the government about to shut down? Congressional leaders and the White House appear to be at an impasse, even after President Donald Trump gave in and scheduled a meeting for Monday to try and get a deal done (though that meeting did not go well). The core of the issue is subsidies connected with the Affordable Care Act, financial assistance that is due to expire at the end of the year. Without it, millions of Americans could see their healthcare premiums skyrocket, with costs rising by hundreds of dollars a month. But the GOP hasn’t been very interested in talking about these funds, despite the fact that millions of Republican voters benefit from them. To understand what the healthcare fight is really about and what happens next, we spoke to Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for KFF and host of the healthcare podcast, “What the Health.”

And in headlines, Democratic Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer tries to turn down the temperature on rhetoric after a deadly attack at a Latter-Day Saints church, Jared Kushner is a gamer (or at least he’s going to buy a video game company along with Saudi Arabia), and MAGA world reacts to the news that Bad Bunny will play the Super Bowl halftime show.

Show Notes:

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TRANSCRIPT

Jane Coaston: It’s Tuesday, September 30th, I’m Jane Coaston, and this is What a Day, the show that would prefer corporations stop paying President Donald Trump over lawsuits that haven’t even gone to court. For any reason ever. Just don’t do it. [music break] On today’s show, Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer tries to turn down the temperature on rhetoric after a deadly attack at a Latter-day Saints church in the state. And Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is a gamer. Well, he’s going to buy a video game company along with Saudi Arabia. That counts. But let’s start with a possible government shutdown tomorrow. And that possibility is getting more real by the second, as congressional leaders and the White House appear to be at an impasse. Even after Trump gave in and scheduled a meeting for Monday to try and get a deal done, though that meeting did not go well. The sticking point is health care. Here’s House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaking on Monday. 

[clip of Hakeem Jeffries] And the reality is that in a matter of days, notices are going to go out to tens of millions of Americans making clear that their health care is about to become dramatically more expensive in ways that will actually cause medical bankruptcy for many or some to have to forego necessary health care. 

Jane Coaston: That’s right. The core of the issue are subsidies connected with the Affordable Care Act, financial assistance that is due to expire at the end of the year. Without that, millions of Americans could see their health care premiums skyrocket, with costs rising by hundreds of dollars a month. But the GOP hasn’t been very interested in talking about these funds, despite the fact that millions of Republican voters benefit from them. And in comments made outside the White House on Monday, Vice President J.D. Vance made one thing clear. Even if ACA health care subsidies are a problem, they aren’t worth closing the government over. 

[clip of Vice President J.D. Vance] We have disagreements about health care policy, but you don’t shut the government down. You don’t use your policy disagreements as leverage to not pay our troops, to not have essential services of government actually function. You don’t say the fact that you disagree about a particular tax revision is an excuse for shutting down the people’s government and all the essential services that come along with it. 

Jane Coaston: Quick fact check. In 2018, the government shut down for 35 days, the longest shutdown in history because Trump wanted his border wall. In 2013, the Government shut down because Republicans like Texas Senator Ted Cruz wanted to defund the Affordable Care Act. So yeah, policy disagreements get the government shutdown. That’s why shutdowns happen. Sorry, J.D. So for more on what the health care fight is really about and what happens next, I spoke to Julie Rovner. She’s chief Washington correspondent for KFF and host of the health care podcast, What the Health. Julie Rovner, welcome to What a Day. 

Julie Rovner: Thanks for having me. 

Jane Coaston: So we’ve heard congressional Democrats say they don’t want to approve a short term spending bill that doesn’t extend enhanced ACA subsidies. Those are the most boring three words I’ve ever heard in my life. So can you explain in fun layman’s terms, what exactly are enhanced ACA subsidies? 

Julie Rovner: You know, back in 2010, when Congress was trying to write a health bill and didn’t have the votes to do Medicare for all, they came up with this really convoluted system to help people pay for health insurance. And it involved tax credits, which we call premium subsidies. Uh. And not that many people signed up because it turned out insurance was still expensive, even if you got help paying for it. So in 2021, during the pandemic, there was a concern that so many people didn’t have health insurance, they enhanced those tax credits. They made them bigger. They expanded them to more people. They made them larger. So people who earned under about 150 percent of poverty, that’s about $30,000 a year, could basically get a half decent health insurance plan for no premium. Um. It was a big deal. And enrollment in the Affordable Care Act doubled. Now, the hard part of this was that the Democrats didn’t have the money to make those uh enhanced premium credits permanent, so they expire at the end of 2025. And the Democrats were fairly confident that they would be able to either have control of the presidency in Congress and extend them themselves or convince the Republicans to do it. And so far, neither of those things has happened. And it’s almost October 1st and the premium credits expire at end of this year. And people are going to start seeing those premium notices in the middle of October. And it’s not going to be boring anymore because people are going to discover that their premiums are going to double or in some cases triple. That will be not boring. 

Jane Coaston: Yes, having to pay way more for health care is notably one of the less boring things that can happen. And we’ve read that something like 24 million people are enrolled in the ACA’s federal and state marketplace plans. If these subsidies sunset at the end of the year, what happens to people’s health care coverage and their wallets? 

Julie Rovner: Well, 90 percent of those 24 million people get some of these subsidies, these tax credits, and basically their wallets are going to get a lot lighter for almost all of them. One thing we know is that even the people who aren’t getting help from the government, premiums are going up. They’re going up for a bunch of reasons. Health care is more expensive. President Trump’s tariffs have not helped things. Now there’s going to be tariffs on drugs. Drug prices have gone up. So premiums are going up about 18 percent in general. But if these extra additional tax credits go away. You’re going to see lots of people who are instead of paying a thousand dollars over the course of a year are going to pay three thousand dollars or four thousand dollars over the course of a year. 

Jane Coaston: Gross. And–

Julie Rovner: Yeah. 

Jane Coaston: The enhanced Obamacare subsidies expanded marketplace health options in rural areas, which include many states run by the Republican Party. But Republican congressional leaders hadn’t tackled the subsidies deadline. Does the GOP just want these subsidies to go away and just get yelled at by their constituents forever? Or is there another reason they haven’t addressed this deadline? 

Julie Rovner: I have been asking this question every week for the last six months. Why aren’t Republicans paying attention to the fact that these are many of their voters who are going to be disproportionately affected by this? The states where enrollment under the Affordable Care Act grew the most are some of the reddest states or some of purplest states like Texas and Florida and Georgia and North Carolina. Um. Farmers and ranchers disproportionately get their coverage through the Affordable care act. These are mostly Republican constituencies. And they’re going to see their premiums skyrocket and they’re gonna complain. Republicans are divided. Half of them would still like to see the Affordable Care Act go away. They didn’t like it in the beginning. They wanted to repeal it in 2017 and couldn’t quite do it. They’ve made some changes in the bill that just passed this summer that will drive premiums up even more. And they are perfectly happy to see these additional tax credits completely go away, but on the one hand, you know, if they do and all of their voters see their premiums go up. Maybe there’s going to be some response. 

Jane Coaston: Yeah, I just realized that for a certain segment of my audience, if I just say the words repeal and replace, someone’s going to drive off the road like that. I just remember that entire fight just being so awful for everyone. But this past weekend, Vice President J.D. Vance and GOP House Leader Mike Johnson said they’d resisted calls to keep the enhanced ACA subsidies because the Democrats real agenda, of course, is to provide health care subsidies to undocumented people. Now, is there any amount of truth to this accusation?

Julie Rovner: No. But uh there were a number of states that were providing Affordable Care Act coverage to people who were not documented using state money. They weren’t using federal money. They weren’t allowed to use federal money and they didn’t. And in the one big beautiful bill uh congress actually made that go away. So there will be nobody who is undocumented. And in fact, there will a number of people who are immigrants who are documented, who are in this country legally, who will no longer be able to use the Affordable Care Act to buy their health insurance. So they’ve gone one step beyond. Um. And perhaps that’s what they’re talking about because Democrats would like to repeal a lot of the changes that were made in that bill. 

Jane Coaston: Now, Trump had taken a pass on talking with Democratic congressional leaders to get a deal on ACA subsidies and avoid a shutdown. He yelled about how the Democrats top congressional leaders wanted to hold the government hostage over what he called, quote, “one trillion dollars in health care for illegal aliens,” which is not a thing that’s real. It seems like every government shutdown, both sides become convinced that they can win this game of chicken. But as we’re talking, Trump is now set to meet with them anyway. Why do you think he changed his mind on this political situation? 

Julie Rovner: Well, it was the Republicans in Congress who told him to cancel the meeting last week, said, don’t bother to meet with the Democrats. You won’t get anywhere. And he didn’t. And now I think the Republicans are saying, well, it was not great optics to say that you won’t even talk to them. So now, apparently, from what I’m seeing, they have talked and gotten nowhere. So now at least the Republicans get to say, well we called them in and had a meeting and they said that they wouldn’t deal. It’s just, yeah, this is basically who gets to blame who for this shutdown, although I you know I’ve covered every shutdown the last 30 some years, um the side that’s sort of forcing it to try to get something doesn’t usually get anything. They usually end up you know reopening the government and walking away with their tail between their legs. 

Jane Coaston: Noe let’s pretend that somehow there could be an agreement that, yes, these subsidies should stay in place next year, maybe on Earth, too, where things are different. Here’s the thing, though. Open enrollment for these plans start in November. Wouldn’t insurers for these health plans need to know how much to charge, like, today? Is this whole fight too late to actually help the people that Democrats say they want to help? 

Julie Rovner: Pretty much. I mean, we there are a few more days, probably, maybe a week or two. A lot of insurers and a lot of states filed two different applications for what they were going to charge. One if the subsidies go away and one if they don’t, so there will be an opportunity to change back. But by the middle of October, they’re going to start sending out notices and people are going to start getting on the website and looking. It’s called window shopping. And they’re going to see those higher premiums and a lot of them, even if they do in December, decide, oh, no, we can’t do this. We have to extend these subsidies. A lot of people will have gone to the website, seen what it might cost them and said, okay, no health insurance for me next year. So there’s a big concern that, you know, this this gets rolling very soon and they are very much running out of time to do anything about it. 

Jane Coaston: Let’s look at another scenario that to me seems way more likely. Let’s say there’s no agreement to keep the federal government running. What typically happens to federal health programs during a shutdown? 

Julie Rovner: Well, this is where, you know, you have the 30 second budget tutorial, which is we have mandatory programs and we have discretionary programs. Mandatory programs are Medicare and Medicaid. They’re not actually affected because the reason the government is shutting down is that the annual appropriations are not done. And those only cover discretionary programs. Now, the trick is a lot of the people who run those mandatory programs are funded under the appropriation. So they either won’t be able to work. They’ll be furloughed or if the head of OMB has his way, fired. Um. But theoretically, if you’re on one of these programs, your coverage won’t stop. Other health programs will shut down. There are all kinds of pages and pages of contingency plans for who’s required to work, who is not allowed to work. Nobody gets paid until the government is reopened again. 

Jane Coaston: Fun. Julie Rovner, thank you so much for joining me. 

Julie Rovner: Thank you. 

Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for KFF. We’ll get to more of the news in a moment. But if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. [music break]

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Jane Coaston: Here’s what else we’re following today. 

[sung] Headlines. 

[clip of President Donald Trump] To ensure the success of this effort, my plan calls for the creation of a new international oversight body. The Board of Peace, we call it. The Board Of Peace. Sort of a beautiful name. The Board of Peace, which will be headed not at my request, believe me. I’m very busy, but we have to make sure this works uh the leaders of the Arab world and Israel and everybody involved asked me to do this, so it’ll be headed by a gentleman known as President Donald J. Trump of the United States. That’s what I want is some extra work to do, but it’s so important that I’m willing to do it. 

Jane Coaston: Sure. That’s Trump being extremely normal and very humble during a press conference at the White House Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump announced a new peace proposal that essentially presents Hamas with an ultimatum to end Israel’s war in Gaza. That is, if Hamas leaders agree to the terms of the deal. The plan has been presented to Hamas, which is reviewing it in good faith, an official told the Associated Press. And the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs parts of the West Bank, has already pledged support for it. The 20-point plan includes an immediate ceasefire, the total demilitarization of Gaza with Israeli military continuing to enforce the perimeter, and the creation of the temporary oversight board Trump mentioned earlier to handle the transition to a new Palestinian government. Hamas leaders, notably, will not have a seat at that table and will no longer have any power in the region. If Hamas agrees to the deal, the organization will have to release all Israeli hostages within 72 hours. And if they don’t agree, well, Netanyahu stole a line from Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr. 

[clip of Benjamin Netanyahu] But if Hamas rejects your plan, Mr. President, or if they supposedly accept it and then then basically do everything to counter it, then Israel will finish the job by itself. This can be done the easy way, or it can be done the hard way, but it will be done. 

Jane Coaston: Netanyahu did not specify further what finishing the job would entail, but it’s clear the consequences would be severe for Palestinians. Trump told Netanyahu that if things do go in that direction, Israel will have the full backing of the United States to, quote, “Do what you have to do.” Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer spoke at a press conference Monday to ask for calm after Sunday’s attack at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints near Grand Blanc, Michigan, about an hour northwest of Detroit. Four people died and eight others were wounded when a man shot into the church during services and set the building on fire. Police said the suspect was killed by law enforcement within minutes. Investigators gave brief details about the suspect, a 40-year-old veteran, but Whitmer asked everyone to wait patiently for more information. 

[clip of Gretchen Whitmer] But I want to caution everyone. While we are working hard, while the good men and women who are working hard are doing so with due diligence at this juncture, speculation is unhelpful and it can be downright dangerous. So I just ask that people lower the temperature of rhetoric. Keep your loved ones close and keep this community close to your hearts. 

Jane Coaston: Contrast Whitmer’s approach was that of White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. She was on Fox & Friends earlier that day. 

[clip of Karoline Leavitt] And as the president rightfully put in his Truth Social yesterday, this appears to be yet another targeted attack on Christians. 

Jane Coaston: Members of the LDS Church identify as Christians, but Fox News host Lawrence Jones still asks this. 

[clip of Fox News Host Lawrence Jones] Did this suspect leave any indication that he was trying to target people of faith? More than the obvious of him doing it to a church on a Sunday? 

[clip of Karoline Leavitt] Well, from what I understand based on my conversations with the FBI director, all they know right now is this was an individual who hated people of the Mormon faith. 

Jane Coaston: Ruben Coleman, the FBI’s special agent in charge for the Bureau’s Detroit Field Office, said the FBI is investigating the incident as a, quote, “act of targeted violence,” but he did not say anything about religious hate. The video game company Electronic Arts announced Monday it will be acquired by a group of investors that include Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund and a firm managed by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Typically, buyouts like this let investors make big changes without the pressure of the stock market, and then those investors resell their shares for a higher price. Kind of like flipping a house, but with an entire company. And even though EA makes some of the biggest video game franchises in the industry, like Madden and Battlefield, its revenues have plateaued over the past few years, making it a pretty attractive option for investors looking to make some dough. The deal to buy EA is valued at about $55 billion, which would make it the largest private equity buyout ever. Deals this big that involve a foreign investor usually need some type of approval from the government, but, um, my guess is Jared and his pals in Saudi Arabia aren’t too worried about that. 

[clip of NBC’s Maria Taylor] It’s official, Puerto Rico’s finest Bad Bunny will be the Apple Music Super Bowl 60 halftime show in February on NBC and Peacock. Bad Bunny, he’s a three-time Grammy winner and the most streamed artist in the world. 

Jane Coaston: That’s NBC Sports broadcaster Maria Taylor at last weekend’s Sunday Night Football Game, just after a clip revealed that Latin superstar Bad Bunny will headline the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show. Bad Bunny is one of the biggest artists in the world, but he’s also a pretty controversial choice for such a major stage given the current political climate, you know, Trump. When the Super Bowl rolls around in February, Bad Bunny will be in the middle of an international tour that will take him pretty much everywhere, but the United States, which is intentional. Earlier this month, he told ID Magazine he chose not to play in the U.S. because, quote, “fucking ICE could be outside.” So MAGA, of course, is not happy. In a post on Twitter, conservative podcaster Benny Johnson even made a helpful list of his objections. He wrote, quote, “massive Trump hater, anti-ICE activist, no songs in English.” Sounds like a pretty stellar resume to me. At least Bad Bunny is happy. In an interview with Apple Music, he said he was at the gym when Jay-Z called and asked him to perform. He was so pumped after hanging up that he did 100 pull-ups. I would love if anything could get me to do 100 pull ups besides an act of God. And that’s the news. [music break]. 

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Jane Coaston: That’s all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, explain to me how Trump is going to tariff the movies, and tell your friends to listen. And if you’re into reading, and not just about how Trump announced on Truth Social over the weekend that he would be placing a 100% tariff on movies made outside of the United States but shown in the United States because, quote, “Our movie making business has been stolen from the United States of America by other countries, just like stealing candy from a baby.” And yes, I believe this does make the U.S. a baby, like me. What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston. And does anyone have any idea how Trump would put a 100% tariff on foreign films? No. Of course not. Because it’s stupid. [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Emily Fohr and Chris Alport. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Sean Allee, Gina Pollack, and Caitlin Plummer. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison. And our senior vice president of news and politics is Adriene Hill. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. [music break]

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