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TRANSCRIPT

Jane Coaston: It’s Tuesday, October 14th, I’m Jane Coaston, and this is What a Day, the show celebrating the start of fall in Los Angeles. And by fall, I mean the temperature is currently below 70. If we get to 60 degrees, I will need a parka. [music break] On today’s show, President Donald Trump takes a victory lap across the Middle East as Israeli and Palestinian families celebrate reunions after a massive prisoner release. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is hoping to get whatever’s left of Trump’s peace efforts once he’s done declaring harmony in the Middle East. But let’s start with the government shutdown. We are now deep in the second week of the government shutdown. And House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Monday that the shutdown could prove to be the nation’s longest. Granted, that’s because, as House Speaker Mike Johnson also said Monday, he will not negotiate with Democrats on extending Affordable Care Act’s tax credits that will expire at the end of the year. Those tax credits could prevent folks enrolled in ACA healthcare programs from seeing their premiums doubled. Without votes from Democrats or blowing up the filibuster, the government is staying closed. It’s kind of like Mike Johnson is bemoaning a fire while doing absolutely nothing to, you know, put out the fire. And to be honest, he doesn’t seem very interested in what’s going up in flames in the process. Here’s Johnson speaking to reporters on the Hill. 

[clip of unnamed news reporter] We know the president [?] with mass layoffs, so we are also learning there were significant cuts to staff at the special education services. Are you comfortable with those cuts? 

[clip of House Speaker Mike Johnson] I haven’t I haven’t seen the specifics of that and I don’t know. 

Jane Coaston: And according to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Johnson won’t even meet with Democrats. You know, the basic activity necessary to end the government shutdown. Here’s Jeffries speaking to MSNBC’s Katy Tur on Monday. 

[clip of MSNBC’s Katy Tur] Have you met with Speaker Mike Johnson? 

[clip of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries] No, Speaker Mike Johnson and I have not met. 

[clip of MSNBC’s Katy Tur] Why not? 

[clip of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries] They’ve made the decision. Donald Trump has not given because Donald Trump has not given them permission to meet, Katy, and we know that until Donald Trump gives them permission to meet, they’re gonna continue to hide as it relates to sitting down and negotiating a bipartisan agreement. 

Jane Coaston: But here’s my question. Yes, obviously, the government shutdown is devastating to millions of people, from federal employees to folks who need basic government services. But what will the shutdown mean for future elections? Republicans and Trump are being blamed for the shutdown. But will anyone care in 13 months when voters head to the polls in the midterms? Lakshya Jain says, probably not. He’s the head of political data for the online political magazine, The Argument, where he offers analysis on pretty much everything elections. So I talked to him about what a government shutdown really means to everyday Americans. Lakshya Jain, welcome to What a Day. 

Lakshya Jain: Thanks for having me. 

Jane Coaston: You wrote something recently that I thought was really interesting, which is that you don’t think this government shutdown matters as much as everyone thinks. Why do you think that and why do you think that is? 

Lakshya Jain: Well, Jane, I think in general, we tend to overestimate what people actually care about. As the fact is, journalists, people who cover politics, pollsters, these are all within the top 0.01% of engaged political viewers in the United States. And so we’ve lost touch with what people really care about and we’ve lost touch with how people respond to events. But if you go back and look at the last few shutdowns, you’ll see that like in general, most people don’t really remember shutdowns by the time the next election comes around, at least over the last 10, 15 years. 

Jane Coaston: Can you tell me a little bit more about that? Because I think that again, yes, I am a political junkie. It is a real problem. And I also talk about it all the time. But also I’m aware that a shutdown cuts off payments to federal workers and closes museums. And like it does cause a lot of drama. Why do you think that that drama fades from public memory so quickly? Because I I actually agree with you. I was thinking about the 2013 shutdown, which was caused in part by Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz. And then in 2014, Republicans did great in the midterms. Like, why do you think that is? 

Lakshya Jain: Yeah, it’s weird, right? Like a federal shutdown has so many consequences and families all across America feel it and feel it deeply. But it’s not clear that they actually care about it by the time it comes to vote a year later. And people have other things that are at the front of their mind. They’re getting their pay again. Um. You know, and it’s important to remember as large of an employer as the federal government is, very few Americans, as a percent of America, actually work for the federal government. So they don’t feel the pain as acutely as federal workers would. But on top of that, generally speaking, people also don’t tend to keep these things in mind because it’s out of sight, out of mind once it actually happens. It’s not a continuing thing for them. So that’s why they don’t seem to vote on it, because it’s not continuing in effect, so it’s not impacting their life right now. 

Jane Coaston: There was a clip on C SPAN last week of a voter who called in to tell House Speaker Mike Johnson that if the troops missed their paycheck this week, they could lose medical care for their kids. So I understand like, yes, most people are not federal employees. Most people are not gonna remember the shutdown next year. But let’s say if military families miss their paychecks or if this goes on for a really long time, is there a chance that things could be different this time? 

Lakshya Jain: I would doubt it because again, we have to look at the share of people who are actually going to change their vote on this. Firstly, less than 3% of Americans work for the federal government, right? Like the federal government is the largest employer in America. But less than 3% of Americans are actually in a household that gets income, I believe, from a federal employee earning money. So that’s already number one. Number two, how many of those people are actually movable partisans? Maybe like a fifth of that percent. So you’re looking at like less than like 0.5% of the electorate that’s even going to feel the direct pain as a result of that. Now, if you think about that, one year from now, who’s going to remember that the military families missed their paycheck, which sounds horrible to say and horrible to think about. But like in 2013, if you remember, we had this whole song and dance with the Republicans and the Affordable Care Act. Their polls plummeted because people immediately in the moment really cared about it. They’re like, oh, this is terrible. You’re shutting down the government for this. And then 2014 came around and they’re like, I don’t, whatever. That was a year ago. I don’t really care about that. So that’s why I think again, like the political electoral impact of the shutdown is being overstated. Not the real human consequences. Those are there and those are horrible. But the electoral impact in 2026 is overstated. 

Jane Coaston: It looks like that for now, polls show that the Republicans are getting a lot of the blame for this shutdown. And to your point, there’s a good chance next year people will just not remember that. But you wrote that if this does get dragged out, it could negatively affect both parties. What would the consequences of that be? And how will we know if that’s what’s happening? 

Lakshya Jain: Yeah, if it gets dragged out, what may happen is number one, public opinion could temporarily turn against the Democrats if people think, hey um, you know, the Democrats are the ones holding out and refusing to provide the votes for the government funding bill, ergo, we blame the Democrats, right? Like they could view the opposition party as in the wrong. And then the short-term pressure from people could get to be so extreme the polls could temporarily crater, like they did for the Republicans in 2013. Democrats would then provide the votes to open the government. That’s one possibility. The other one, though, which I think is a little bit more likely, is that who controls the levers of government right now? The Republicans. Who holds the House, the Senate, and the presidency? It’s the Republicans. Most voters think, hey, Donald Trump is the president, Republicans hold power. Why is the government being shut down? And they’re gonna blame the Republicans. In that case, you see the Republicans’ poll standing plummet, and you see them probably eliminate the filibuster to reopen the government because they realize, hey, we’ve got to do something here. We can’t just say the public’s gonna blame the Democrats when we’re the ones in power. So we get tasked with the responsibility of governing. 

Jane Coaston: Now if shutdowns don’t really affect elections, what incentive does anyone in Washington have to avoid future ones? Like we could just be doing this all the time. I don’t wanna be France. I I don’t wanna do this all the time. Are we just stuck in this cycle forever? 

Lakshya Jain: Well, the reason shutdowns don’t affect elections is because they generally get resolved well before an election, right? Like the reason we say that the shutdown isn’t gonna matter is because we have a basic underpinning of faith that the government will get reopened and it will get reopened soon and that it will stay open. If this is not the case and if that breaks, you could see people start to care about the shutdown a little bit more. You know, if we’re in like January or February, God forbid, and we get another one of these and then we get another one of them in like June or July, or depending on whatever happens, you could see it take more salience and then it becomes a real flash point. That’s possible. That’s why I don’t think shutdowns are gonna become like a every couple of months thing, but yeah, I don’t like it. 

Jane Coaston: No, I don’t like this at all. And I think I’m really appreciative of you being here because we have a very engaged and passionate audience at What a Day, people who are super plugged in and care a lot about politics, which we do. But to your point, most people are not like that. So what is one thing about the government shutdown and its potential electoral impact that you think they should know? And is there anything that can be done about any of this? 

Lakshya Jain: You know, one thing that I would say people should know is that things that matter are not necessarily always going to move voters at the ballot box, and things that move voters at the ballot box don’t necessarily always matter. Um. There’s a correlation between the two, but they’re not directly always connected. And so if you see the headlines and you’re watching, like, oh, the Republicans are airing ads on Fox News, hitting the Democrats on the shutdown, take a step back, pretend that you haven’t read any of the news for the last week or two, and then ask yourself, like, who is in power? Like, what do most people know about government right now? All they know is that Trump is the president and maybe they know Republicans control the House and the Senate. From there, what do you think they’re gonna conclude? And the less you pay attention to these things, actually the better your political instincts get, which is kind of funny and kind of counterintuitive. But I really think we would all benefit in analysis of long-term implications if we were able to just turn off Twitter, turn off the news and say, how do most people process this? 

Jane Coaston: But people should still listen to my podcast. 

Lakshya Jain: Yes. 

Jane Coaston: People should absolutely still listen to my podcast. 

Lakshya Jain: Absolutely. 

Jane Coaston: Lakshya Jain, thank you so much for joining me. 

Lakshya Jain: Thank you for having me, Jane. 

Jane Coaston: That was my conversation with Lakshya Jain, head of political data for The Argument. We’ll link to his work in the show notes. We’ll get to more of the news in a moment, but if you like the show, make sure to subscribe, leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts, watch us on YouTube, and share with your friends. More to come after some ads. [music break]

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Jane Coaston: Here’s what else we’re following today. 

[sung] Headlines.

[clip of President Donald Trump] This is not only the end of a war. This is the end of a age of terror and death and the beginning of the age of faith and hope and of God. It’s the start of a grand concord and lasting harmony for Israel and all the nations of what will soon be a truly magnificent region. I believe that so strongly. This is the historic dawn of a new Middle East. 

Jane Coaston: Trump, a man well known for saying things like grand concord and lasting harmony, zigzagged across the Middle East region on Monday. During the trip, he spent time in Israel, where he spoke to the Knesset and was greeted by Israeli lawmakers who chanted his name, some wearing familiar red baseball caps that said, quote, “Trump, the peace president.” 

[clip of President Donald Trump] I’ve always stood for the people of this community and I always will. I’ll always be with you. I’m always gonna be with you. I guess maybe something could happen to change my mind. Somebody that’s really stupid gets into office and wants to do really bad things, but that’s about it. But we don’t think we’re gonna have that happen. 

Jane Coaston: You can always tell when he abandons the pre-written remarks, can’t you? Trump also met with the families of some of the newly released Israeli hostages as people across the region welcomed their loved ones back home. [clip of cheers] Massive crowds gathered to celebrate as 20 living Israeli and almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners returned home Monday morning. The remains of four deceased hostages were also released to Israel, and the last 24 are expected to be returned soon. Trump then met with world leaders in Egypt to discuss the second phase of the ceasefire. Negotiations remain shaky as authorities debate whether Hamas will disarm and who will govern Gaza. They’re also weighing the possibility of Palestinian statehood. And they’re debating how to address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which has been largely reduced to rubble. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators remain deeply divided on these points, and solutions could take years to implement. Lawyers from Louisiana and the Trump administration will argue that race shouldn’t be considered in redistricting. If they win, one of Louisiana’s majority Black congressional districts would be erased. The case started when Black voters and civil rights groups fought a congressional map that left just one majority Black district in a state that is one-third Black. They won their case in lower courts, and later the state even added a second majority Black district, and the Supreme Court backed a similar case in Alabama in 2023. But now, a group of white voters, the state of Louisiana and the Trump administration, all argue that the court shouldn’t use race to design districts at all, saying that intentionally creating minority districts is not constitutional. The case could have huge implications on minority voting rights, obviously. But it also has the potential to rework who controls Congress next year. Remember, this case comes while Trump urged Texas and other red states to redesign their districts in the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections. If southern states suddenly feel no need to protect minority districts, especially ones controlled by Democrats, there is a huge opportunity for Republicans. Maybe to the tune of 19 more seats in the House of Representatives. Chief Justice John Roberts has had a vendetta against race-based redistricting since he worked in Ronald Reagan’s Justice Department. But don’t worry, I’m sure it’ll all be fine. The Supreme Court is non-partisan, remember? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Washington this week with one goal. Convince the Trump administration that defending his country is still worth it. Zelensky’s making his pitch for more long-range weapon systems, specifically Tomahawk cruise missiles. Given that their range is more than 1,500 miles, Ukraine could use the weapons to strike deep inside Russia. This would help the country withstand a brutal Russian winter offensive and protect Ukraine’s electricity and gas networks, which have faced relentless Russian bombardment aimed at eroding public morale. Here’s Trump on Air Force One on whether he’d supply said missiles. 

[clip of President Donald Trump] Do they wanna have tomahawks going in their direction? I don’t think so. I think I might speak to Russia about that in all fairness. I told that to President Zelensky because tomahawks are a new step of aggression. 

Jane Coaston: Of course Trump won’t act without speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin first. It’s called chain of command. In all seriousness, Moscow has expressed, quote, “extreme concern over the US potentially providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine,” implying their deployment could seriously damage relations between Moscow and Washington. But who knows? With Trump still sulking over his Nobel Peace Prize snub, maybe he’s posturing for 2026. A slew of media companies are refusing to sign a statement acknowledging new restrictions on journalists at the Pentagon. The rules stop reporters from gathering info the Defense Department does not explicitly authorize. And the Pentagon Press Association, which represents journalists, said last week that the rules limit where reporters can go without an official escort, and convey, quote, “an unprecedented message of intimidation.” News organizations that don’t sign by today must turn in their media credentials. Legacy publications like the Associated Press, CNN, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal said they won’t sign. Interesting to note, Trump-friendly companies, Newsmax and the Washington Times also refused. The Washington Post executive editor Matt Murray said in a statement Monday, quote, “the proposed restrictions undercut First Amendment protections by placing unnecessary constraints on gathering and publishing information.” And what does Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have to say to this constitutional finger wagging? Well, he’s on Twitter, using emojis to wave goodbye to outlets refusing to capitulate. He also explained the department’s quote, “press credentialing for dummies.” He said access to the Pentagon is a privilege, and that the new rules mean the press can no longer wander freely there or quote, “solicit criminal acts.” And that’s the news. [music break] One more thing. Racism. It’s bad. But on Elon Musk’s Twitter, it is mind-bendingly profitable. And so is hardcore right wing content, especially since Elon bought Twitter in 2022 and introduced a system to pay people for the views they get on their tweets in 2023. The more extreme the content, the more people click on it, and people absolutely click on the wildly racist shit you’ll see on Twitter right now. And so it shouldn’t really be surprising that the people making right-wing content that’s also often super racist aren’t always deeply committed American patriots or even white nationalists. Actually, a lot of times those accounts are run by people who aren’t American, aren’t white, and aren’t located in the United States at all. Take, for example, an account on Twitter called Inevitable West, which currently has more than 330,000 followers on the platform. And yes, Twitter addicts, as you already guessed, this account uses an AI generated [?] statue as its profile picture. Inevitable West’s Twitter bio reads as follows quote, “Defender of Western values and culture, Jesus Christ is king, covering Europe and the US.” But earlier this year, Inevitable West was exposed as being run by Saurabh Chandrakar, a notorious scammer who was being held under house arrest in Dubai for his role in a complex money laundering scheme centered around a gambling app. Has he stopped tweeting right wing nonsense? Of course not. And our friend Chandrakar is far from alone. Another white nationalist right-wing bullshit slop account on Twitter, Radio Genoa, which has more than a million followers and has gotten support from Elon is being run by a Cambodian man living in Italy. The Radio Europe account, which posted endless anti-immigrant white nationalist rage bait, was exposed last year by a Swedish news outlet to be run by a Turkish couple living in Dubai. Time after time, the most racist right-wing slop accounts on Twitter are run by people living in and representative of the same countries those accounts constantly denigrate. All of these accounts work in basically the same way, using Twitter’s algorithm to bring in thousands of dollars. For example, they’ll post so-called engagement bait, like using a photo of an interracial couple or a Black person doing pretty much anything ever, with text reading, what do you think? Or thoughts? The bait lures in people who interact with the post in any way. Even if they’re saying, why would anyone have issues with an interracial couple? A process called engagement farming. And because America has the largest audience on Twitter, a lot of the bait is centered on American politics and of course American racism. I know this seems like some minor bullshit, but if you spend a lot of time on any social media platform like Twitter, you slowly start to get warped by it. And with the rise of weirdo racist engagement bait accounts that get thousands of followers on a daily basis, I can’t help but feel that users are being exposed to more hardcore racism than they’d ever experienced in any other space. And what gets me most of all is that it’s not even real racism. It’s racism for profit. Because I’m going to guess that Saurabh Chandrakar doesn’t care much about race relations in the United States or the horrifying results of rising racial tensions. He’s getting his payout from Twitter. One way or another. [music break]. 

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Jane Coaston: That’s all for today. If you like the show, make sure you subscribe, leave a review, contemplate how FBI director Kash Patel’s source on Antifa is Glenn Beck, and tell your friends to listen. And if you’re into reading, and not just about how, according to the right wing media mogul, Patel sent FBI agents to his house last week to ask Beck about his research on Antifa. Like me, What a Day is also a nightly newsletter. Check it out and subscribe at Crooked.com/subscribe. I’m Jane Coaston, and honestly, this is the best news Antifa has gotten in months. [music break] What a Day is a production of Crooked Media. It’s recorded and mixed by Desmond Taylor. Our associate producers are Emily Fohr and Chris Allport. Our video editor is Joseph Dutra. Our video producer is Johanna Case. We had production help today from Greg Walters, Matt Berg, Sean Allee, Gina Pollack, and Caitlin Plummer. Our senior producer is Erica Morrison, and our senior vice president of News and Politics is Adriene Hill. We had help today from the Associated Press. Our theme music is by Colin Gilliard and Kashaka. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. [music break]

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